Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8db9bc25606dc95fefe000aed1d99a87109fc3851c5439405a661d58d20e3e58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,006 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 21c | 499.73$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.24 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 14c | 366.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 331.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 226.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 12c | 206.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 62c | 191.21$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.05 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 24c | 148.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 146.27$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 124.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 121.55$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 17c | 108.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…2860backed Yes | 15c | 101.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 15c | 91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 56c | 76.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 29c | 74.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 32c | 61.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac5…154cbacked Yes | 38c | 58.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cc…5734backed Yes | 20c | 56.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 27c | 44.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 45c | 43.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 43.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…190fbacked Yes | 39c | 30.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04e…98f8backed No | 52c | 21.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 76c | 13.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.