Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b70f3d836937ad59590e9103e3d02cdc152ab32712f9f2ae5a17f033b247ecc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,435 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 16c | 466.28$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.63 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…93a9backed Yes | 29c | 389.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.1 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed No | 71c | 282.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.03 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 209.53$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 186.53$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 10c | 169.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 29c | 169.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…dff6backed Yes | 37c | 168.58$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 28c | 131.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 76c | 128.21$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 27c | 112.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 20c | 103.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 80c | 101.69$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 62c | 97.12$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 40c | 94.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed Yes | 21c | 94.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 76.56$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 75.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 17c | 70.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 41c | 64.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…2860backed Yes | 43c | 63.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 31c | 60.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed No | 67c | 60.43$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d8…88b4backed Yes | 35c | 56.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25eb…0506backed No | 79c | 52.96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 29c | 52.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 64c | 38.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d14…fe50backed Yes | 33c | 35.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed No | 66c | 32.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 43c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked No | 71c | 26.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 66c | 24.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 47c | 22.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 77c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…296bbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 68c | 14.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.