Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6970b57d7d1b605f436ba2a61c4fdb3551bc70217e4f6c7d0ee267aaf9b201d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,926 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 76c | 323.32$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.49 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 274.47$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 54c | 245.8$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.61 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 41c | 187.69$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.86 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…dff6backed Yes | 33c | 168.04$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 158.45$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.03 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 151.77$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 67c | 148.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.56 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 31c | 133.31$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.62 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 14c | 131.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 64c | 114.4$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 107.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 49c | 97$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 13c | 95.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 63c | 92.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 32c | 91.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.81 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 38c | 91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7c…b91dbacked No | 61c | 86.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked No | 24c | 84.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 51c | 76.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 73.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…9d98backed Yes | 69c | 72.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 69c | 71.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 66.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 44c | 65.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac5…154cbacked Yes | 70c | 65.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 36c | 64.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 39c | 64.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 18c | 62.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 61.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…d33ebacked Yes | 51c | 60.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 48c | 59.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 34c | 58.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 61c | 55.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 42c | 54.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 39c | 54.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 37c | 51.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 66c | 50.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d8…88b4backed Yes | 39c | 50.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 61c | 49.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076f…dc12backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 54c | 46.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 45.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 46c | 43.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28d7…0e5abacked Yes | 51c | 39.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 65c | 38.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…d73cbacked Yes | 62c | 37.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6160…fdfcbacked No | 39c | 35.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 37c | 34.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x955a…ff6abacked Yes | 50c | 32.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…95c4backed Yes | 35c | 30.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…5154backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 37c | 29.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 28.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cc…5734backed Yes | 42c | 25.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 60c | 24.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 62c | 21.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…ad53backed No | 56c | 21.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc980…4e72backed No | 67c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…296bbacked No | 60c | 20.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.