Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Fonseca vs Collignon
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8deb8f488f84fc9ec9c879f035e5d933ab1ae19cb01951a4f4aef43455e16037
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fonsecaof Fonseca, Collignon
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,880 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Collignon | 50c | 747.04$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 1,118 | 42.8%479 W · 639 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7767…4fb2backed Fonseca | 64c | 326.72$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.15 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Fonseca | 49c | 274.61$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.64 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Fonseca | 51c | 259.14$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.45 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Fonseca | 50c | 178.48$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.24 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Collignon | 35c | 163.62$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.75 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…12ebbacked Collignon | 49c | 110.14$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.97 | 184 | 30.4%56 W · 128 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f59…bd2dbacked Collignon | 48c | 105.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Fonseca | 16c | 103$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.52 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Fonseca | 47c | 90.36$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Collignon | 49c | 70.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 283 | 22.3%63 W · 220 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Fonseca | 51c | 64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Collignon | 43c | 50.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 813 | 49.1%399 W · 414 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Collignon | 48c | 50.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Collignon | 32c | 36.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 359 | 32.6%117 W · 242 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…d358backed Fonseca | 68c | 36.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 341 | 59.5%203 W · 138 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb189…e61dbacked Fonseca | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bec…37d3backed Fonseca | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 142 | 72.5%103 W · 39 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Collignon | 64c | 24.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 1,923 | 55.4%1,066 W · 857 L | -44.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…b95dbacked Collignon | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Fonseca vs Collignonthis page
- BNP Paribas Open: Joao Fonseca vs Raphael CollignonJoao Fonseca won
- Fonseca vs. Collignon: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5)Fonseca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.