South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-10-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e353a7e0226c6e94d8087a6aacb10eac3e102a5f58c2e403764a48a80d156df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 42c | 40,000$16,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,600 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Yes | 59c | 19,998$11,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,199.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Yes | 61c | 11,769$7,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,575.1 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 58c | 8,012$4,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,358.9 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 31c | 3,123$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,167.1 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 68c | 2,364$1,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,598.52 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c3…3e00backed Yes | 32c | 2,351$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,601.01 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 68c | 1,022$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.03 | 124 | 65.3%81 W · 43 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 69c | 679.74$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.02 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 51c | 654.38$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.15 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe993…f57dbacked Yes | 30c | 600$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +167.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c6…fb27backed No | 70c | 600$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed No | 66c | 529.02$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.15 | 144 | 22.9%33 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 32c | 366.12$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.56 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…dac9backed No | 36c | 299.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5240…8f9cbacked Yes | 66c | 150.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b55…2eaebacked Yes | 68c | 147.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2b…adcfbacked Yes | 29c | 135.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.03 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 29c | 123$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.7 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 68c | 90$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…bdafbacked No | 73c | 87.4$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 31c | 72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5f…1dc6backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…ee5abacked Yes | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12a7…1bdcbacked Yes | 31c | 55.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fd…49eebacked Yes | 36c | 55.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…ccf1backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 30c | 48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40c6…d364backed Yes | 68c | 45.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 38c | 40.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 32c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 88 | 8%7 W · 81 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629f…3f9dbacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdc…efadbacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b60…5593backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…a062backed Yes | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed No | 68c | 16.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-10-19?this page
- Will Ceará SC vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?No won
- Will Ceará SC win on 2025-10-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.