Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Jovic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e3a0dd0f1120bdec4f32d2f81cbc24d4e6d06b787308eac8ff7e283d4bde852
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabalenkaof Sabalenka, Jovic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Sabalenka | 76c | 1,890$1,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.6 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Jovic | 24c | 1,638$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.05 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0baf…390abacked Jovic | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Jovic | 25c | 220$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Sabalenka | 75c | 220$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 420 | 46.9%197 W · 223 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sabalenka | 79c | 105.36$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Jovic | 23c | 96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Jovic | 21c | 79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Jovic | 14c | 75.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Jovic | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Sabalenka | 76c | 47.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed Sabalenka | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…e730backed Sabalenka | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…6613backed Sabalenka | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b1…cac1backed Sabalenka | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859a…1ccebacked Sabalenka | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…042fbacked Sabalenka | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…956bbacked Sabalenka | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ed…53f7backed Sabalenka | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…1969backed Sabalenka | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf9…142bbacked Sabalenka | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc727…adc2backed Sabalenka | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…0c24backed Sabalenka | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Jovicthis page
- Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Iva JovicSabalenka won
- Sabalenka vs. Jovic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Jovic: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Jovic: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Jovic: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Jovic (+1.5)Sabalenka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.