Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Jovic (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a2bd20b74020f52de8fec2d2494342daa9d348b0d2d1c523241c13fb1b09071
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabalenkaof Sabalenka, Jovic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Jovic | 35c | 9,035$3,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,123.94 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x046c…2a9cbacked Sabalenka | 65c | 5,079$3,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,778.41 | 352 | 47.2%166 W · 186 L | -23.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Sabalenka | 66c | 4,552$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,552.21 | 572 | 49.5%283 W · 289 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Jovic | 27c | 1,619$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.7 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c1…e644backed Sabalenka | 64c | 1,155$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.86 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Jovic | 34c | 607.55$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.77 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Jovic | 35c | 600$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 401 | 41.9%168 W · 233 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb77e…e668backed Sabalenka | 64c | 570.01$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.01 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Sabalenka | 67c | 494.6$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.22 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…95babacked Jovic | 47c | 429.4$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.51 | 625 | 45.4%284 W · 341 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Jovic | 42c | 356$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Jovic | 38c | 305.68$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Sabalenka | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Jovic | 35c | 299.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf1…99d3backed Sabalenka | 66c | 203.21$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.09 | 386 | 52.3%202 W · 184 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Sabalenka | 64c | 168.1$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.81 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Jovic | 36c | 165.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…0d53backed Jovic | 36c | 144$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0483…483bbacked Sabalenka | 65c | 137.95$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Jovic | 36c | 105$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f07…9d0fbacked Jovic | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 706 | 52.7%372 W · 334 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…a46abacked Jovic | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Sabalenka | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Sabalenka | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba4c…9dc3backed Sabalenka | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -5.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Jovic | 38c | 92.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Jovic | 25c | 80.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Jovic | 37c | 79.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Jovic | 19c | 63.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabe0…7670backed Sabalenka | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Jovic | 36c | 46.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Sabalenka | 65c | 41.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fc…2d72backed Sabalenka | 64c | 30.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacc…23c6backed Sabalenka | 64c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb5…6a69backed Sabalenka | 64c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…f8afbacked Sabalenka | 64c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4922…4960backed Sabalenka | 65c | 24.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…bcb1backed Sabalenka | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc9…801ebacked Sabalenka | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…bc16backed Sabalenka | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked Sabalenka | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7219…fcf7backed Sabalenka | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef9…b5bfbacked Sabalenka | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa029…c912backed Sabalenka | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…9248backed Sabalenka | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Jovic (+1.5)this page
- Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Iva JovicSabalenka won
- Sabalenka vs. Jovic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Jovic: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Jovic: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Jovic: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs JovicSabalenka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.