College Football · resolved market
NC State vs. Notre Dame
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e54a13a891056a4a0b92a88b2e44dff7a33b49c738907d0a7e7ba728cf89ed4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Notre Dameof NC State, Notre Dame
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $213,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $216,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $213,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked NC State | 7c | 59,133$4,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,194.4 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked NC State | 6c | 30,740$1,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,844.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea18…3cbebacked NC State | 7c | 15,120$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8c…672ebacked NC State | 7c | 14,286$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.02 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed NC State | 5c | 7,948$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.88 | 256 | 29.3%75 W · 181 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked NC State | 11c | 5,266$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.29 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed NC State | 1c | 5,142$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 224 | 4%9 W · 215 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed NC State | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed NC State | 6c | 3,011$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.99 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked NC State | 8c | 2,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff9…bb89backed NC State | 4c | 2,389$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.57 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed NC State | 7c | 2,004$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.67 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked NC State | 1c | 1,350$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 79 | 0%0 W · 79 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff3…7d00backed NC State | 7c | 1,010$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked NC State | 7c | 899$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.35 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed NC State | 7c | 715$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked NC State | 6c | 682.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked NC State | 8c | 573.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked NC State | 8c | 545$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ae…eb14backed NC State | 8c | 534.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed NC State | 10c | 501.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40b8…da32backed NC State | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc0…4ce8backed NC State | 12c | 344.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a9…677ebacked NC State | 6c | 343.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89d0…d63cbacked NC State | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked NC State | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 124 | 33.1%41 W · 83 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781e…2484backed NC State | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e86…6bc9backed NC State | 8c | 295.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed NC State | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed NC State | 6c | 255.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed0…a43cbacked NC State | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed NC State | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…63f2backed NC State | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed NC State | 6c | 186.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed NC State | 14c | 164.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…780abacked NC State | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…b14abacked NC State | 15c | 129.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…9de8backed NC State | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…3e44backed NC State | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked NC State | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2581…77d6backed NC State | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeae…214abacked NC State | 11c | 107.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed NC State | 16c | 71.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NC State vs. Notre Damethis page
- NC State vs. Notre Dame: O/U 58.5Under won
- O/U 60.5Under won
- Spread: Notre Dame (-22.5)Notre Dame won
- Spread: Notre Dame (-23.5)Notre Dame won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.