Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C or below on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e92de4ab54329affdbc5915167d723d86d6fe1005cca7e0a9153e68397b9759
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,637 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 5c | 922.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x663a…5c51backed No | 77c | 445.77$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.99 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 23c | 270.38$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.37 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 11c | 233.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 33c | 232.42$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 231.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 19c | 212.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 64c | 208.48$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 13c | 174.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 38c | 165.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 28c | 157.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 38c | 136.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 77c | 133.52$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 10c | 131.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 39c | 129.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e3…fcacbacked Yes | 37c | 101.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 30c | 97.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 73c | 94.86$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 78c | 66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…a005backed Yes | 25c | 59.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…5dcabacked Yes | 22c | 58.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed Yes | 35c | 51.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…63b0backed No | 62c | 48.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 40c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 44c | 42.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x684f…cef7backed No | 71c | 41.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 29c | 41.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 58c | 40.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e93…78a6backed Yes | 29c | 39.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7908…4f35backed Yes | 46c | 35.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 72c | 33.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 43c | 30.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed Yes | 34c | 30.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 77c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 60c | 27.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 25.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 40c | 25.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bed…e6d2backed No | 80c | 25.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e87…bb12backed No | 58c | 23.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6397…735ebacked Yes | 44c | 23.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 66c | 22.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f24…5a56backed Yes | 44c | 22.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked No | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 66c | 19.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 75c | 15.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C or below on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on March 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.