Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e6a09f8640d56bfdf94af207bc710651a6df035f5109c63db2344d1f1956057
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,232 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 7c | 337.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 216.66$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 56c | 205.93$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.89 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked No | 14c | 168.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 44c | 162.79$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.81 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 139.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 55c | 116.01$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.72 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 106.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.61 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7f…ad2cbacked Yes | 65c | 103$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 33c | 99.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.78 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 51c | 73.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 72.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 53c | 70.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 58c | 67.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 23c | 65.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 17c | 61.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddc…c226backed No | 44c | 60.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 59c | 53.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 80c | 51.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 58c | 49.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 23c | 48.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 70c | 46.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 67c | 37.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 40c | 37.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…a005backed Yes | 40c | 37.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 53c | 36.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 48c | 36.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 30.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…0634backed Yes | 49c | 30.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…186dbacked Yes | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 77c | 24.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed No | 56c | 24.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 53c | 22.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…c259backed No | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3a…17aebacked Yes | 47c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 55c | 21.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 60c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2599…747ebacked No | 66c | 18.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 67c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No | 61c | 16.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes | 64c | 15.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C or below on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.