Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -6°C on January 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8eaa4580fdf029faf2dc3f236e0bb7bb90946869f64ace3dc4b658a5e4ef528a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 13c | 241.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4229…c131backed No | 11c | 187.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 118.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd1…871dbacked Yes | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 50c | 99.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9526…8f87backed Yes | 45c | 89.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 75c | 72.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x15b2…b310backed Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 55c | 53.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 53.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 44c | 52.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391c…68d1backed No | 65c | 49.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa331…29b9backed Yes | 50c | 48.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 47c | 43.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23a9…64f3backed Yes | 50c | 41.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 34c | 39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…576bbacked No | 57c | 34.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf1…b8d9backed Yes | 45c | 33.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8d…c149backed Yes | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed87…b78abacked Yes | 50c | 24.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 49c | 22.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0686…630abacked No | 59c | 20.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b74…6516backed Yes | 53c | 20.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf91…0f8ebacked No | 58c | 20.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa90a…472fbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba08…20a8backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…0567backed No | 57c | 18.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -6°C on January 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C or higher on January 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -4°C on January 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -5°C on January 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -7°C on January 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -8°C or below on January 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.