Tennis · resolved market
Troyes: Federico Bondioli vs Inaki Montes
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8eb3b925af0a04e7e711baccff9723cc3ededf19aa8b4692d65ae92e00ec350f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Inaki Montesof Federico Bondioli, Inaki Montes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Federico Bondioli | 28c | 1,304$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.57 | 969 | 45.9%445 W · 524 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Inaki Montes | 75c | 658.18$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.6 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Inaki Montes | 68c | 499.99$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.5 | 379 | 44.6%169 W · 210 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…91fcbacked Federico Bondioli | 32c | 499.99$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.5 | 447 | 51.7%231 W · 216 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Federico Bondioli | 32c | 398.49$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.38 | 521 | 52.2%272 W · 249 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Federico Bondioli | 3c | 362.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Inaki Montes | 74c | 353.51$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.51 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Federico Bondioli | 27c | 266.35$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.91 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Federico Bondioli | 7c | 256$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Federico Bondioli | 27c | 253.45$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.43 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Federico Bondioli | 29c | 246.77$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.49 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Inaki Montes | 69c | 236.09$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.71 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Federico Bondioli | 8c | 207.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Federico Bondioli | 9c | 183.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Federico Bondioli | 29c | 169.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Federico Bondioli | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 363 | 49.6%180 W · 183 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Federico Bondioli | 18c | 158.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 668 | 34.3%229 W · 439 L | -43.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Federico Bondioli | 16c | 144.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…f4debacked Federico Bondioli | 30c | 132.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 1,475 | 35.2%519 W · 956 L | -14.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Inaki Montes | 71c | 115.95$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb3…f5b0backed Federico Bondioli | 19c | 111.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 469 | 57.6%270 W · 199 L | +32.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Federico Bondioli | 23c | 108.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 2,061 | 48.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L | +35.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Federico Bondioli | 22c | 107.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Inaki Montes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 237 | 42.6%101 W · 136 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Federico Bondioli | 27c | 98.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Federico Bondioli | 17c | 97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad5…ccdebacked Federico Bondioli | 31c | 81.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 550 | 32.7%180 W · 370 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Federico Bondioli | 35c | 78.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 1,688 | 45.4%766 W · 922 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28be…6dbebacked Federico Bondioli | 29c | 68.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 36.6%86 W · 149 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Federico Bondioli | 19c | 64.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1,062 | 42%446 W · 616 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…84f7backed Inaki Montes | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 353 | 49.9%176 W · 177 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c74…3c0dbacked Federico Bondioli | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…98cabacked Inaki Montes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 408 | 61.3%250 W · 158 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Federico Bondioli | 29c | 38.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Federico Bondioli | 34c | 34.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Federico Bondioli | 35c | 31.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Inaki Montes | 71c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…5749backed Inaki Montes | 74c | 27.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 2,855 | 49.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked Inaki Montes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 126 | 58.7%74 W · 52 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Inaki Montes | 70c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ea…42e8backed Inaki Montes | 73c | 16.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 898 | 59.7%536 W · 362 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Inaki Montes | 76c | 15.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 1,094 | 52.4%573 W · 521 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…f12fbacked Inaki Montes | 73c | 13.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 586 | 65.5%384 W · 202 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.