CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Johnny Speeds (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1: Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ee28ff6b5a7604781483c50dacc477d0bdd5c0283fe46e8784d29bcea1645e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BIGof BIG, Johnny Speeds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,848 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Johnny Speeds | 26c | 1,571$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.69 | 1,411 | 33.7%475 W · 936 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked BIG | 74c | 1,000$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.44 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b5…bd15backed Johnny Speeds | 11c | 928$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Johnny Speeds | 30c | 843.8$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.19 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed BIG | 69c | 417$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.88 | 567 | 32.5%184 W · 383 L | -30.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked BIG | 71c | 177.75$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked BIG | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 489 | 48.7%238 W · 251 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed BIG | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 292 | 44.5%130 W · 162 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked BIG | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 543 | 46.2%251 W · 292 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x724c…1521backed BIG | 74c | 135.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 98 | 62.2%61 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Johnny Speeds | 27c | 120.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 205 | 39.5%81 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c26…affabacked BIG | 73c | 75.12$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Johnny Speeds | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 392 | 37.2%146 W · 246 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…fd8fbacked BIG | 71c | 49.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed BIG | 75c | 45.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 1,547 | 33.9%524 W · 1,023 L | -73.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…8d29backed BIG | 74c | 45.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…db89backed BIG | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Johnny Speeds | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed BIG | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2a…6a73backed BIG | 71c | 27.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3a…aaa2backed BIG | 73c | 26.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked BIG | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked BIG | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 601 | 47.4%285 W · 316 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f50…e59ebacked BIG | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 117 | 58.1%68 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed BIG | 72c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 872 | 44.8%391 W · 481 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.