Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Ma vs Ito
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8eec1ad174bd26522e9d97c57555eefe63315cff84eb5050c92265ab83b3150b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maof Ma, Ito
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Ma | 55c | 3,497$1,907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590.39 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Ito | 47c | 3,086$1,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,448.62 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8840…f51abacked Ito | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 0%0 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Ito | 27c | 666.74$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.36 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Ma | 57c | 289.82$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.62 | 367 | 57.8%212 W · 155 L | +26.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Ito | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Ito | 65c | 164.6$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.68 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Ma | 41c | 143.18$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.91 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Ma | 47c | 140.07$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.44 | 376 | 45.7%172 W · 204 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Ma | 52c | 125.14$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.46 | 745 | 47.4%353 W · 392 L | -28.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Ito | 39c | 114$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Ito | 42c | 112$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Ito | 70c | 110$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.45 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +19.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2f…9123backed Ma | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 316 | 56.3%178 W · 138 L | +19.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Ito | 49c | 63.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Ito | 33c | 45.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 441 | 38.8%171 W · 270 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…a690backed Ito | 46c | 24.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Ito | 66c | 19.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 440 | 51.6%227 W · 213 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Ma vs Itothis page
- Ma vs. Ito: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Set 2 Winner: Ma vs ItoIto won
- The Memphis Classic, Qualification: Yexin Ma vs Aoi ItoYexin Ma won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.