Serie A · resolved market
AC Milan vs. Pisa SC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8eee9cb03a62a492fe5ae1db54d994a2829eb4c7ad8a657bcc1ee39d41dc2bef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 45c | 5,707$2,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,541.92 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 3,781$1,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,814.52 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Over | 53c | 2,030$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.1 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 47c | 2,010$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Over | 59c | 1,631$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.32 | 249 | 39.4%98 W · 151 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 56c | 1,535$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.91 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…952ebacked Over | 55c | 935.05$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.77 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…8ae8backed Over | 54c | 926$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Over | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 46c | 444$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.24 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a8…c43bbacked Over | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 43c | 236.27$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.6 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Under | 65c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Over | 69c | 135$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 55c | 119.85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b46…4f6ebacked Over | 55c | 106.67$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa6…39dbbacked Under | 48c | 104.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 47c | 95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d84…7b78backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.29per pick | 63cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 43c | 88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69f7…e1d8backed Over | 55c | 72.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 52c | 70.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…08a1backed Over | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under | 39c | 63.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42e2…4d16backed Over | 47c | 62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2f…8d49backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…378bbacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +34%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…4e02backed Over | 55c | 36.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Under | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e5…2244backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 54c | 29.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd76…dde0backed Under | 45c | 27.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633b…7e70backed Under | 48c | 24.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x967f…7281backed Under | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b4…a041backed Under | 45c | 23.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b0…ece9backed Over | 55c | 21.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Over | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 125 | 65.6%82 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AC Milan vs. Pisa SC: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)Pisa SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.