Serie A · resolved market
Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d68dc85d1a6b7982cc0880ff17f7ee912fc890dfc27a75628095b669597c302
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pisa SCof AC Milan, Pisa SC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed AC Milan | 48c | 50,000$24,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,000 | 109 | 52.3%57 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Pisa SC | 52c | 49,990$25,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,995.15 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pisa SC | 53c | 14,049$7,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,609.95 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked AC Milan | 47c | 9,111$4,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,282.17 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed AC Milan | 47c | 6,809$3,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,215.73 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Pisa SC | 49c | 5,677$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,876.59 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…b883backed AC Milan | 50c | 1,815$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed AC Milan | 51c | 1,385$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.35 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…99febacked Pisa SC | 53c | 700$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 29cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked Pisa SC | 52c | 599.81$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.91 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…dd26backed Pisa SC | 51c | 571$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.79 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed AC Milan | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…3f0abacked AC Milan | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7272…7135backed AC Milan | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pisa SC | 47c | 255.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.31 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…7fe3backed AC Milan | 52c | 230.65$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.94 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf32…aecbbacked AC Milan | 53c | 226.32$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…0d57backed Pisa SC | 51c | 216.08$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.08 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 47cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…d930backed AC Milan | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Pisa SC | 53c | 174$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.79 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d08…763ebacked AC Milan | 49c | 144.37$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.74 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95db…dc65backed AC Milan | 49c | 129.64$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 39cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked AC Milan | 52c | 127.58$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.34 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked AC Milan | 49c | 115.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.79 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd002…2ee8backed AC Milan | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…f1b3backed AC Milan | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1690…4bf8backed AC Milan | 50c | 80.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed AC Milan | 51c | 77.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Pisa SC | 48c | 62.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…11f8backed AC Milan | 51c | 59.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked AC Milan | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed AC Milan | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33fa…681bbacked AC Milan | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked AC Milan | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Pisa SC | 49c | 48.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x825a…ece6backed AC Milan | 51c | 48.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd22…7025backed AC Milan | 51c | 41.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked AC Milan | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06f…8752backed AC Milan | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Pisa SC | 48c | 38.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Pisa SC | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x967f…7281backed AC Milan | 52c | 23.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…6304backed AC Milan | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)this page
- AC Milan vs. Pisa SC: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.