World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f1b42fb39139525deb69399c1ca6927fbd45bceaf630d457a8e5c71a868cbfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 11c | 753.03$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.03 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f5…6d8dbacked Yes | 3c | 308.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00eb…313cbacked Yes | 7c | 299.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 17c | 175$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…be51backed Yes | 9c | 135.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 16c | 119.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 72c | 118.45$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 12c | 117$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 36c | 114$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 91.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 17c | 84.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…402cbacked Yes | 14c | 74.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 67.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 28c | 61.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 33c | 60.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 32c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 33c | 31.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 68c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 27.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 68c | 26.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa393…fabebacked No | 77c | 25.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 76cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 74c | 15.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.