TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,561
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,201

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,561 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x107c…ab15backed Yes0c11,301$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes1c1,256$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.271747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+31%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes36c1,075$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38423723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes48c790.68$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.222339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes15c446.82$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.810414.4%15 W · 89 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No52c428.25$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.629822.4%22 W · 76 L-0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No47c408.32$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.5944138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes6c400$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.927353.4%39 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No55c363.6$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.028655.8%48 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No53c314.54$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.6327143.5%118 W · 153 L-21.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x935c…fb8fbacked Yes13c298.42$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+196.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes32c292.77$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.021618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x811a…9a3cbacked Yes4c291.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes57c263.46$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504748.9%23 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ba5…c168backed Yes9c219.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-69.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x838c…5c82backed Yes48c203.49$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971338.5%5 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90e6…319dbacked Yes15c202.36$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d82…9e66backed Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b6e…5848backed Yes57c191.13$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.993036.7%11 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+64.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes28c177.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503132.3%10 W · 21 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-42.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No51c169.73$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.6634354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No50c160$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8032639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No49c154.6$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.314344.2%19 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes49c154.59$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.982045%9 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes11c149.02$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1322111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes52c143.36$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.678865.9%58 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fb4…be51backed Yes50c140.28$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.93450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6546…04e1backed Yes45c139.73$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634944.9%22 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe795…99c9backed Yes46c136.98$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No49c136.89$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.0723459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No51c134.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.723551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff1f…e2e6backed No65c131$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.51955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No71c126.17$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.0416254.3%88 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No62c123.3$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.3314753.7%79 W · 68 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7342…d5b4backed No40c119$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+152.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes47c118.57$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.736043.3%26 W · 34 L-7.0wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-27%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe630…ef20backed No76c117.11$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2514100%14 W · 0 L+3.7wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes37c117.01$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.841637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes42c116$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1210837%40 W · 68 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes46c115$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No57c114.2$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.0716850.6%85 W · 83 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaddf…b8febacked No53c113.19$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.22254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes36c105.63$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.491,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No54c103.1$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4488448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5695…60e9backed Yes48c102.04$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+23.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes32c99.26$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.118342.6%78 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd487…5f32backed Yes14c97.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.346955.1%38 W · 31 L+6.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No78c85.88$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0421854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No47c85$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.0531152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No49c83.59$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.485554.5%30 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8958…656dbacked No51c80$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.951770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No78c77$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0939952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No55c68.86$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.316450.6%83 W · 81 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked No46c66.29$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.073839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed Yes49c64.87$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.713548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1225…e17fbacked No50c61$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No77c60.52$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1918348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes37c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1316738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No64c60$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.87741.6%32 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No78c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.222355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked No43c58.35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.172065%13 W · 7 L+4.4wins+0.22per pick43cpaid+51.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No58c56.58$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6536055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No60c56.28$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2415056.7%85 W · 65 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No75c55.74$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9714553.8%78 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed Yes52c55.47$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.842045%9 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes50c54.04$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278438.1%32 W · 52 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes46c53$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3810320.4%21 W · 82 L-6.7wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf3b…880abacked Yes37c52.02$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No63c50.95$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.114445.8%66 W · 78 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x304b…a619backed No48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262240.9%9 W · 13 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick59cpaid-37.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No55c49$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1126355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No50c48.21$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0715766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No49c46.75$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2415954.1%86 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No42c44.88$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8818158%105 W · 76 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No53c43.75$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6920065%130 W · 70 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No47c43.51$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8918662.4%116 W · 70 L+13.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No60c43.07$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2716755.1%92 W · 75 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa99…29afbacked No56c42.85$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.857236.1%26 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e6…6423backed Yes24c41.18$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104045%18 W · 22 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc54…db0ebacked No75c40.93$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.23475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65ce…6ff8backed No48c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.971060%6 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+58.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd1c…3f79backed No58c39.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.763663.9%23 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No73c39.98$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9840648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No53c39.1$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3214954.4%81 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes52c38.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203141.9%13 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No54c37.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2716051.9%83 W · 77 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No47c37.18$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.855954.2%32 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xecd9…5565backed No52c36.4$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.371060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No59c36.21$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0215237.5%57 W · 95 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9cf…b443backed Yes28c36$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-73.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes59c34.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.372045%9 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No50c32.92$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.393467.6%23 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+16.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes46c32.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes59c32.1$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.992729.6%8 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No56c31.57$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.988937.1%33 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No52c30.83$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.666357.1%36 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba6d…9128backed No51c30.69$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.14875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+40.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x93f7…c133backed Yes63c29.97$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.