World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7762e1b39262cd167ff6ec3207e83775d7ad2effd8dc0a7b12bac1e3b70e76d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 33c | 1,465$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.18 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 42c | 1,222$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.54 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 42c | 568.47$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.42 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 26c | 501.61$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.28 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 54c | 425$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.77 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 410.94$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.04 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 19c | 335.82$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 38c | 308.91$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.1 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed No | 42c | 300$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 12c | 268.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 59c | 261.29$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.61 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 38c | 257.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.23 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 257.37$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.17 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 13c | 244.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x722e…faddbacked No | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 238.05$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.89 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 231.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 6c | 218.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 80c | 214$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.2 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 187.9$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.4 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 12c | 186$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 158.46$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.41 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 158.17$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.78 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 41c | 158.13$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 154.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 132 | 68.9%91 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 23c | 149.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x838c…5c82backed Yes | 37c | 144.02$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.02 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 22c | 143$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 35c | 141$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 33c | 139.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…be51backed Yes | 36c | 139.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 32c | 138.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 33c | 136$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.12 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 32c | 133.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.04 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 46c | 133.28$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 44c | 132.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 38c | 128$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.53 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 26c | 122.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 39c | 121$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.81 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 55c | 120.41$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 13c | 112.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582c…3266backed Yes | 71c | 112.68$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…c595backed Yes | 64c | 109.77$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 44c | 107.02$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 43c | 106.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 55c | 106$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 15c | 105.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.8 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 34c | 104.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 58 | 75.9%44 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 35c | 102.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b5…5f21backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 97.51$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 58c | 90.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 26c | 85.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 141 | 26.2%37 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 53c | 84.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 64c | 83.57$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 32c | 81.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 62c | 81.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 45c | 77.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +5.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 27c | 74.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 33c | 70.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 68.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 31c | 64.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…6423backed Yes | 62c | 64.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 31c | 62.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.22per pick | 43cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 36c | 62.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…2262backed No | 32c | 62.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 80c | 62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 76c | 61.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed No | 34c | 59.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 33c | 54.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 37c | 54.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed No | 26c | 52.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 66c | 51.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…a2d2backed Yes | 41c | 49.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 57c | 48.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 48.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 47c | 47.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 57c | 46.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 38c | 45.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 41c | 45.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.51per pick | 35cpaid | +163.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c73…4ca6backed Yes | 69c | 43.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 29c | 43.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 28c | 43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c84…be53backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +37%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 55c | 38.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.