CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ESC Gaming vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f9d298c2ff4800ba3e68610c735a45c1f7412983a899bc80cccc9faf9ec48c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ESC Gamingof ESC Gaming, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked ESC Gaming | 54c | 1,506$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.23 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…7bd9backed Ursa | 37c | 1,319$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa16b…b541backed Ursa | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 434 | 55.1%239 W · 195 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ESC Gaming | 74c | 741.35$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.17 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked ESC Gaming | 58c | 649.39$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.84 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…c7dbbacked Ursa | 55c | 560.64$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.29 | 362 | 53.3%193 W · 169 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Ursa | 30c | 499.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 388 | 35.8%139 W · 249 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed ESC Gaming | 56c | 300.02$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.01 | 655 | 46.9%307 W · 348 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Ursa | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 608 | 38.2%232 W · 376 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…15e6backed ESC Gaming | 70c | 196.4$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.92 | 275 | 56.4%155 W · 120 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed ESC Gaming | 66c | 178.55$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.71 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ursa | 20c | 112.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked ESC Gaming | 55c | 102.9$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.33 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Ursa | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 361 | 51.8%187 W · 174 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…a39dbacked Ursa | 44c | 76.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed ESC Gaming | 61c | 73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 447 | 48.1%215 W · 232 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc4…3d45backed ESC Gaming | 55c | 55.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…58c4backed ESC Gaming | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 117 | 68.4%80 W · 37 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ESC Gaming vs Ursa - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: ESC Gaming vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group StageESC Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: ESC Gaming vs Ursa - Map 2 WinnerESC Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.