CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ESC Gaming vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe52844cabe572c07f6153e52e885301cf63f0769a1cd4ae6762b8d2b255c0736
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ESC Gamingof ESC Gaming, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8b6…c7dbbacked ESC Gaming | 55c | 887.99$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.59 | 362 | 53.3%193 W · 169 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Ursa | 46c | 863.54$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.92 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ursa | 39c | 729.25$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.79 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ursa | 45c | 654.25$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.17 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa16b…b541backed ESC Gaming | 53c | 624.71$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.61 | 434 | 55.1%239 W · 195 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb583…939ebacked ESC Gaming | 56c | 499.85$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.32 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…325bbacked Ursa | 40c | 478.5$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.83 | 946 | 45.8%433 W · 513 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Ursa | 7c | 344.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 644 | 39.8%256 W · 388 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Ursa | 7c | 343$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 363 | 34.2%124 W · 239 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5501…fe9abacked Ursa | 43c | 313.38$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.22 | 187 | 36.9%69 W · 118 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed ESC Gaming | 37c | 299.96$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.98 | 608 | 38.2%232 W · 376 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ursa | 46c | 276.45$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.25 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Ursa | 57c | 238.89$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.12 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…a3babacked ESC Gaming | 68c | 222$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 1,117 | 68.6%766 W · 351 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…2748backed ESC Gaming | 71c | 209.3$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.72 | 161 | 55.9%90 W · 71 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked ESC Gaming | 80c | 194.88$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 840 | 37.9%318 W · 522 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Ursa | 29c | 157.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…ae74backed ESC Gaming | 78c | 151.31$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed Ursa | 33c | 149.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 557 | 38.4%214 W · 343 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb39d…b695backed Ursa | 79c | 143.74$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.55 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…5bc0backed Ursa | 47c | 141.38$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 153 | 58.2%89 W · 64 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Ursa | 68c | 135.78$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.68 | 655 | 46.9%307 W · 348 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Ursa | 48c | 134.19$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.55 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1912…def8backed ESC Gaming | 41c | 120$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 40cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…15e6backed ESC Gaming | 57c | 107.14$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.42 | 275 | 56.4%155 W · 120 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…3b7dbacked ESC Gaming | 67c | 97.02$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 318 | 52.8%168 W · 150 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…6b69backed ESC Gaming | 65c | 90.04$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 95 | 68.4%65 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd067…9b9abacked Ursa | 59c | 81.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 456 | 63.6%290 W · 166 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed ESC Gaming | 64c | 76.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 446 | 54.9%245 W · 201 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Ursa | 30c | 67.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 447 | 48.1%215 W · 232 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6117…2fafbacked ESC Gaming | 67c | 58.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…58c4backed ESC Gaming | 68c | 57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 117 | 68.4%80 W · 37 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…a520backed ESC Gaming | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…e722backed ESC Gaming | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 262 | 45.8%120 W · 142 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9a…73fabacked ESC Gaming | 55c | 35.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 393 | 53.2%209 W · 184 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…a0d5backed ESC Gaming | 67c | 27.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Ursa | 67c | 24.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 1,650 | 32.7%540 W · 1,110 L | -49.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf11a…1002backed ESC Gaming | 56c | 21.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 278 | 48.6%135 W · 143 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe297…e484backed ESC Gaming | 65c | 20.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 322 | 58.7%189 W · 133 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ba…8faebacked ESC Gaming | 75c | 19.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea6…1dc0backed Ursa | 57c | 18.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ESC Gaming vs Ursa - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: ESC Gaming vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group StageESC Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: ESC Gaming vs Ursa - Map 1 WinnerESC Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.