Mls · resolved market
Spread: Nashville SC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fb9775a2f72ed9a5645bbb36fd256429f75286c5df0868857feb36deae9be5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nashville SCof Nashville SC, Atlanta United FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3f1…d589backed Atlanta United FC | 49c | 220.42$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe32e…bf96backed Atlanta United FC | 49c | 215.8$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ef…0754backed Atlanta United FC | 49c | 215.32$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48a5…b17fbacked Atlanta United FC | 49c | 214.75$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff6f…9e3cbacked Atlanta United FC | 49c | 213.34$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…2838backed Atlanta United FC | 49c | 213.3$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa55…9d17backed Atlanta United FC | 49c | 212.4$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd032…36e0backed Atlanta United FC | 49c | 212.25$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a65…88e5backed Atlanta United FC | 49c | 212.17$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…57babacked Atlanta United FC | 49c | 211.96$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0937…99dfbacked Atlanta United FC | 49c | 211.72$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 50cpaid | +51%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x382b…7f14backed Atlanta United FC | 49c | 211.45$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa96…d733backed Atlanta United FC | 49c | 211.3$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426d…2962backed Atlanta United FC | 49c | 211.06$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15f1…0e51backed Atlanta United FC | 49c | 209.55$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44df…7855backed Atlanta United FC | 49c | 208.76$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x988a…6179backed Atlanta United FC | 49c | 208.76$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8422…5907backed Atlanta United FC | 49c | 208.73$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88f9…9becbacked Atlanta United FC | 49c | 208.09$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…74bfbacked Atlanta United FC | 49c | 208.06$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e68…31d8backed Atlanta United FC | 49c | 207.87$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eda…2754backed Atlanta United FC | 49c | 207.18$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe42…8e5cbacked Atlanta United FC | 49c | 206.19$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.03 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x914f…e477backed Atlanta United FC | 49c | 205.91$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a71…01d3backed Atlanta United FC | 49c | 205.82$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…821dbacked Atlanta United FC | 49c | 205.6$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff53…24fbbacked Atlanta United FC | 49c | 205.43$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd7…834dbacked Atlanta United FC | 49c | 202.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1324…eb09backed Atlanta United FC | 49c | 202.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7a…4f82backed Atlanta United FC | 49c | 194.36$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Atlanta United FC | 80c | 75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077f…b971backed Atlanta United FC | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nashville SC (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta United FC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Atlanta United FC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Atlanta United FC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Atlanta United FC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-2.5)Atlanta United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.