Mls · resolved market
Atlanta United FC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20f71c208633355ce29a135097fcf28f122016816273590c05936d0d84d045af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 64c | 2,416$1,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.83 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 1,950$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.56 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 24c | 1,039$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.35 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…b624backed Over | 33c | 999.99$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 41c | 914.98$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.65 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 24c | 677.06$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.17 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 24c | 596.48$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.68 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 69c | 369.6$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.42 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 24c | 323$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.52 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 61c | 305.2$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.17 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 39c | 300$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Over | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 55c | 238.32$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.67 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2e…5b64backed Over | 34c | 211$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…e90dbacked Over | 56c | 178.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.54 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 59c | 150$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Over | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3061…916ebacked Over | 45c | 148.13$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0632…d1b7backed Under | 64c | 124.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 41c | 121.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Under | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 66c | 99.4$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62cc…f56fbacked Over | 32c | 77.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 18c | 72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 89 | 71.9%64 W · 25 L | +17.2wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 37c | 62.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 66c | 59.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9413…bc8cbacked Over | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +195.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Under | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 45c | 44.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Under | 58c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 40c | 32.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cf…0425backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a479backed Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a1…3a92backed Under | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 77c | 29.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 77c | 27.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a5…7f75backed Over | 42c | 26.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 76c | 24.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 76c | 24.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Over | 76c | 24.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 76c | 24.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta United FC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 1.5this page
- Atlanta United FC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Atlanta United FC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Atlanta United FC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-1.5)Nashville SC won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-2.5)Atlanta United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.