Mls · resolved market
Atlanta United FC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70405aceffa446c4396082bf39520cd2be3d4aed5198ba1f386b992704600a02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 49c | 949.76$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.55 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…8c21backed Over | 51c | 784.31$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 28c | 600$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 76c | 472.04$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.55 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 23c | 344.3$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.19 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 24c | 278.09$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.05 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 15c | 242.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 11c | 227.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 11c | 227.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 11c | 227.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 9c | 220$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 89 | 71.9%64 W · 25 L | +17.2wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 9c | 220$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea8…e50dbacked Over | 51c | 217.61$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 48c | 209.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.82 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759e…9782backed Under | 49c | 207$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee1c…be92backed Under | 49c | 206$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4640…c920backed Over | 51c | 205.83$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf59…7c8cbacked Over | 51c | 205.17$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda3…a9eabacked Under | 49c | 204$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf113…13b8backed Under | 49c | 204$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a94…a1fbbacked Over | 51c | 192.39$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 21c | 102.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 49c | 99.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.47 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e9…1aeabacked Over | 21c | 95.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b5…f7ebbacked Over | 13c | 91.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +39%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 53c | 86.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 26c | 79.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 25c | 58.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Under | 48c | 49.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Over | 51c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 52c | 35.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 46c | 27.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Under | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta United FC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 2.5this page
- Atlanta United FC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Atlanta United FC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Atlanta United FC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-1.5)Nashville SC won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-2.5)Atlanta United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.