Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fc30abe3bbbf42f3204926c5d716f9eb9fb5694900de55d817c5f58966efe36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 39c | 431.89$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.89 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 339.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 277.35$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 52c | 262.92$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.99 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 23c | 256.75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 247.51$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.68 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 43c | 210.24$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.1 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 36c | 207.49$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.52 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.15 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…52e2backed No | 78c | 192.4$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 191.82$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.01 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b2…9131backed No | 57c | 185$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.45 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 61c | 150$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 49c | 143.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.59 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 73c | 141.64$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.56 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed No | 61c | 120$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…dc18backed Yes | 30c | 106.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.32 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed No | 19c | 93.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 41c | 93.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.93 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 39c | 86.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 61c | 81.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…b6ddbacked Yes | 57c | 79.66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 64c | 73.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 72.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 27c | 69.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 54c | 69.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 26c | 67.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 64c | 65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 53c | 63.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 37c | 53.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 53.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 31c | 52.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 40c | 41.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x690e…8e12backed Yes | 54c | 41.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 36c | 39.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 55c | 37.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 38c | 37.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 36.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 75c | 35.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 60c | 33.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 48c | 31.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 65c | 28.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 48c | 24.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 64c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e34…2c47backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed No | 62c | 19.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 15.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 69c | 15.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.