Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Hannover 96: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fe1276ca44af8ed5d74cd777cd87f64fe780a575f7031554ce5c789d3ddc57a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 18c | 9,106$1,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,495.23 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 76c | 6,300$4,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,788 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Over | 37c | 5,000$1,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,149.99 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 77c | 2,165$1,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,663.48 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…5f54backed Under | 70c | 586.31$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 63c | 337$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.31 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3065…b4efbacked Under | 65c | 300$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 77c | 195.01$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a09…db1cbacked Over | 33c | 178.81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.44 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 23c | 148.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.38 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7b…6a44backed Under | 70c | 140$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 8c | 138.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.14 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Under | 63c | 90.29$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 37c | 79.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 25c | 48.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 37c | 47.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Hannover 96: O/U 3.5this page
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Hannover 96: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Hannover 96: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Hannover 96: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Hannover 96: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.