MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90910ac56c8f49d22c621f86ca6b29052c4a66f93ca9263ccdc1aaad046c7bcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof St. Louis Cardinals, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 7,704$3,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,101.96 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 3,508$2,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,401.21 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 3,407$1,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,328.63 | 692 | 49%339 W · 353 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 3,193$1,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,279.15 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 2,373$1,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.81 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 2,000$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 1,387$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.69 | 731 | 49.4%361 W · 370 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 800$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 700$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked San Francisco Giants | 59c | 350$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.5 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked San Francisco Giants | 59c | 309.28$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.8 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 200$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d22…ecb3backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…2bd3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 25c | 58.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- Cardinals vs. GiantsGiants won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.