Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Hurkacz vs Bublik
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9091b6ab17ea4cec91710a1a9f3a4dab606a7fc039ef97ff7881b1a02b71e161
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hurkaczof Hurkacz, Bublik
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Bublik | 4c | 912.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Bublik | 16c | 195.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -10.2wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Hurkacz | 57c | 185.52$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.27 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…a9b3backed Bublik | 49c | 80.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 262 | 27.9%73 W · 189 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab2…a34fbacked Bublik | 53c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…f041backed Bublik | 54c | 38.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Hurkacz | 46c | 38.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d41…6989backed Bublik | 53c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe826…cfe1backed Hurkacz | 47c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfef4…409ebacked Hurkacz | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e21…4275backed Hurkacz | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e04…3fb0backed Bublik | 53c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c3…78dfbacked Hurkacz | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6724…0e17backed Bublik | 54c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec2…c5f1backed Hurkacz | 50c | 30.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9783…d484backed Hurkacz | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +36%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…b022backed Bublik | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 52cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed89…e68ebacked Bublik | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68c…16c8backed Bublik | 54c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x353a…06c5backed Hurkacz | 47c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +70%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…6e99backed Bublik | 53c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc989…679ebacked Hurkacz | 47c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa57…ffdbbacked Bublik | 53c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb414…9683backed Bublik | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fed…23e5backed Bublik | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d99…934cbacked Bublik | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Hurkacz | 68c | 19.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Hurkacz vs Bublikthis page
- Hurkacz vs. Bublik: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Hurkacz vs. Bublik: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Hurkacz vs. Bublik: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Hurkacz vs. Bublik: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Rotterdam Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Alexander BublikBublik won
- Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Hurkacz (+1.5)Hurkacz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.