Stocks · resolved market
Will Meta (META) finish week of March 23 above $570?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90920287519eff7b2669f1c77466a06d45956f9ac960938702b30a71ff9d63fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba7b…b949backed Yes | 74c | 822.35$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2266…83b6backed No | 26c | 822.35$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…328cbacked No | 26c | 742.75$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…5b63backed Yes | 74c | 742.75$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…8a12backed No | 7c | 696.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +677.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 9c | 340.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.73 | 1,783 | 49%874 W · 909 L | +142.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x770b…e274backed Yes | 65c | 205.76$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.91 | 170 | 38.2%65 W · 105 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32c4…d7ecbacked No | 38c | 156.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.43 | 348 | 39.1%136 W · 212 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 67c | 145.9$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x982a…6851backed No | 51c | 145.51$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.28 | 849 | 46.1%391 W · 458 L | +51.9wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 63 | 7.9%5 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 17cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 33c | 56.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 164 | 26.8%44 W · 120 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta (META) finish week of March 23 above $570?this page
- Will Meta (META) finish week of March 23 above $550?No won
- Will Meta (META) finish week of March 23 above $560?No won
- Will Meta (META) finish week of March 23 above $580?No won
- Will Meta (META) finish week of March 23 above $590?No won
- Will Meta (META) finish week of March 23 above $600?No won
- Will Meta (META) finish week of March 23 above $610?No won
- Will Meta (META) finish week of March 23 above $630?No won
- Will Meta (META) finish week of March 23 above $640?No won
- Will Meta (META) finish week of March 23 above $650?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.