College Football · resolved market
Spread: Clemson (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90bbc85c616b64ee28fb44ea8e1884e4ce3344c509fa22ee8b53ea696c7daa33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SMU Mustangsof Clemson, SMU Mustangs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd38b…5029backed SMU Mustangs | 56c | 74,507$41,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,554.27 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Clemson | 43c | 31,440$13,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,466.9 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Clemson | 46c | 22,621$10,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,405.76 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Clemson | 43c | 8,484$3,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,678.71 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Clemson | 43c | 3,022$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,293.72 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Clemson | 43c | 2,760$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.43 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Clemson | 41c | 2,500$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked Clemson | 41c | 2,500$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x63af…0a25backed Clemson | 41c | 2,500$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Clemson | 42c | 2,082$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.33 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Clemson | 41c | 1,500$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Clemson | 47c | 1,421$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x281d…814fbacked Clemson | 44c | 1,400$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.45 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Clemson | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb790…8389backed SMU Mustangs | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc648…259cbacked Clemson | 41c | 750$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.5 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8480…293ebacked Clemson | 41c | 750$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.5 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa52e…e2c4backed Clemson | 41c | 750$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.5 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Clemson | 41c | 560$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.85 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Clemson | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Clemson | 45c | 200$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf40…975fbacked Clemson | 43c | 186.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Clemson | 42c | 175$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Clemson | 44c | 175$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Clemson | 43c | 165$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Clemson | 44c | 115.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Clemson | 44c | 53.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Clemson | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Clemson | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4f…3d87backed Clemson | 48c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Clemson (-5.5)this page
- SMU Mustangs vs. ClemsonSMU Mustangs won
- SMU Mustangs vs. Clemson: O/U 50.5Over won
- SMU Mustangs vs. Clemson: O/U 51.5Over won
- SMU Mustangs vs. Clemson: O/U 52.5Over won
- Spread: Clemson (-3.5)SMU Mustangs won
- Spread: Clemson (-4.5)SMU Mustangs won
- Spread: Clemson (-6.5)SMU Mustangs won
- Spread: Clemson (-7.5)SMU Mustangs won
- Spread: Clemson (-9.5)SMU Mustangs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.