Other European Leagues · resolved market
CD Nacional vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91067396ffaf43b1d101ab469e30d4aa8c85749ce9f8897f02f6a5534d445d2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 58c | 4,266$2,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,789.89 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 35c | 3,823$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.13 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…caadbacked Over | 29c | 1,350$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.06 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +109%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 27c | 1,080$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.54 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 48c | 1,014$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.68 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 67c | 627.46$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.88 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 593.44$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.78 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Under | 77c | 299.68$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.93 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 50c | 279.8$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.9 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 66c | 274.19$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.68 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 58c | 273.81$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.67 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 47c | 212.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.76 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…dfdabacked Under | 52c | 209.18$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.41 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 66c | 190.35$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 48c | 190$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 1,107 | 47.7%528 W · 579 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 52c | 189.07$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.75 | 119 | 41.2%49 W · 70 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe735…4198backed Over | 51c | 145.59$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 77c | 128.08$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.62 | 217 | 67.7%147 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0577…02ccbacked Over | 51c | 106.77$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b4…c2f1backed Over | 48c | 100.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…8aa7backed Over | 51c | 97.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 43c | 96.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fe…7558backed Over | 51c | 91.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…083dbacked Over | 36c | 88.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 41c | 75.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 223 | 49.3%110 W · 113 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 48c | 65.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d63…0b78backed Under | 63c | 49.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46dc…92c3backed Under | 56c | 47.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…a444backed Under | 59c | 47.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec7…db02backed Over | 53c | 46.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed Under | 54c | 46.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x400e…374bbacked Over | 43c | 45.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…2512backed Over | 48c | 44.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -10.8wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbe…4d88backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5660…1707backed Over | 51c | 38.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Under | 55c | 36.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c30…d9e5backed Under | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Under | 47c | 33.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 40c | 28.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 192 | 65.1%125 W · 67 L | +13.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Under | 75c | 27.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.41per pick | 57cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 50c | 26.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 241 | 46.9%113 W · 128 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…574cbacked Under | 58c | 25.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 28 | 89.3%25 W · 3 L | +6.7wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 48c | 25.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,711 | 48.3%827 W · 884 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 45c | 24.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed Under | 55c | 20.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Nacional vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 2.5this page
- CD Nacional vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CD Nacional vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 1.5Over won
- CD Nacional vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 3.5Under won
- CD Nacional vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CD Nacional (-1.5)CD Nacional won
- Spread: CF Estrela da Amadora (-2.5)CD Nacional won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.