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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 26?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,711
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,042

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,711 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbce…507dbacked Yes10c1,400$141 inLost-$140.548831.8%28 W · 60 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+59.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes5c539.78$25 inLost-$25.391,56916.3%255 W · 1,314 L+22.4wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x32d1…e5c8backed Yes9c460.57$43 inLost-$42.52789%7 W · 71 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes7c403.47$27 inLost-$27.3210,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf514…07cdbacked Yes11c378.16$40 inLost-$404938.8%19 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+32.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd394…7e90backed Yes5c327.52$16 inLost-$15.73649.4%6 W · 58 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+50%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes9c264$23 inLost-$22.73,13949.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74dd…2131backed Yes6c244.3$15 inLost-$14.9611115.3%17 W · 94 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes11c207.62$24 inLost-$23.8718319.7%36 W · 147 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes10c204$20 inLost-$20.44,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes8c164.8$13 inLost-$12.7692145.6%420 W · 501 L-29.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes9c144.85$12 inLost-$12.4543045.6%196 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes10c143.75$14 inLost-$13.7230369%209 W · 94 L+28.9wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+28.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x85d2…7479backed Yes9c126.71$11 inLost-$10.9154658.8%321 W · 225 L+47.2wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+23.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes10c112.03$11 inLost-$10.721,33034.1%453 W · 877 L+45.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes10c111$11 inLost-$11.163733.4%213 W · 424 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes10c109$11 inLost-$11.0430733.2%102 W · 205 L+17.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+25.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa83b…6f57backed Yes11c101.86$12 inLost-$11.571435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid+10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe828…ae41backed Yes11c95.43$10 inLost-$10.3316832.1%54 W · 114 L-9.5wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f4e…dba5backed Yes25c92.7$23 inLost-$23.351656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes20c73.88$15 inLost-$1526466.7%176 W · 88 L+21.8wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+13.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8958…656dbacked No77c27.22$21 inWon+$6.2413861.6%85 W · 53 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.