Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59f4a63902e92e5b5899ed17aa35610461c6d8cbf3e6996a7d0853a395d2d086
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 29c | 2,000$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.17 | 430 | 45.6%196 W · 234 L | +16.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 70c | 933.05$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.92 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 891.9$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.31 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 69c | 699.11$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.74 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 26c | 606.96$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.71 | 190 | 46.3%88 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 28c | 482.53$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.86 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0d…98d2backed Yes | 34c | 458.99$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.12 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 76c | 450.24$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.92 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 448.18$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.34 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…26ffbacked No | 63c | 413.97$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.41 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 327.28$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.16 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 24c | 287.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 25c | 260$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 887 | 49.5%439 W · 448 L | -26.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 258.42$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.14 | 4,148 | 56.7%2,351 W · 1,797 L | +51.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 68c | 255.45$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.06 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 253.89$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 253.39$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 33c | 252$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.71 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 78c | 230.66$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.82 | 221 | 60.6%134 W · 87 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 215$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.39 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 71c | 202.57$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.07 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 27c | 199.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 264 | 66.7%176 W · 88 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 195.17$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.94 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes | 33c | 186$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 78c | 180.09$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 66c | 177.63$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 634 | 60.3%382 W · 252 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc847…33f6backed Yes | 48c | 161.54$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.13 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 27c | 156.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,244 | 16.7%208 W · 1,036 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 32c | 148.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 72c | 148.27$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 68c | 146.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 146$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…31eabacked Yes | 36c | 142.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 139.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 34c | 138.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e39…aad6backed Yes | 28c | 122.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 40c | 118.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 21c | 113.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 408 | 45.8%187 W · 221 L | +30.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 113$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 80c | 112.63$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 19c | 111.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 293 | 37.5%110 W · 183 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 34c | 111$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd33e…8736backed No | 76c | 108$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +66%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 108$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0d…0885backed Yes | 25c | 101.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 23c | 101.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 989 | 52.3%517 W · 472 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 457 | 46.4%212 W · 245 L | -20.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 31c | 98.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 219 | 40.6%89 W · 130 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 72c | 94$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4e…dba5backed Yes | 33c | 91.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 24c | 89.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 254 | 40.9%104 W · 150 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 66c | 86.15$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 358 | 64%229 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 65c | 85.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 81.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 1,330 | 34.1%453 W · 877 L | +45.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 25c | 79.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 492 | 59.6%293 W · 199 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2da9…0a3cbacked Yes | 19c | 79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 24c | 75.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 76c | 74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 34c | 73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…c1c8backed Yes | 22c | 72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 67c | 66.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa3…8eddbacked No | 73c | 64.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 71c | 64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 62c | 60.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 75c | 57.82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 546 | 58.8%321 W · 225 L | +47.2wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 72c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4868…a1c1backed No | 67c | 54.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 51.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1,569 | 16.3%255 W · 1,314 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 25c | 51.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 65c | 50.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 50.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 172 | 34.9%60 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 70c | 48.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2799…b1e1backed No | 73c | 47.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 60c | 46.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 2,304 | 27%622 W · 1,682 L | -41.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ee…edcbbacked Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 57c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…1e2abacked Yes | 42c | 44.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 31c | 43.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 65c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 493 | 63.5%313 W · 180 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 65c | 40.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…86f1backed No | 76c | 38.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 45c | 37.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 29c | 37.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 300 | 41%123 W · 177 L | +26.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 31c | 36.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 50c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 374 | 34.8%130 W · 244 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…2286backed No | 68c | 34.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 34.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 58c | 33.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7b…ffc1backed No | 76c | 32.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.