Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a848494e3e36590a6a38ab474dd457cbf478f1aefbb05d3ce8813d63b7fc7a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 61c | 1,773$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.38 | 430 | 45.6%196 W · 234 L | +16.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0d…0885backed No | 28c | 673.53$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.34 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 39c | 656.97$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 31c | 574.45$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.41 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 38c | 458$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.8 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 374.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 38c | 263.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 290 | 43.8%127 W · 163 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 15c | 230.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 215.23$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.23 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 6c | 195.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1,866 | 25.4%474 W · 1,392 L | +134.7wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 12c | 192.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 1,569 | 16.3%255 W · 1,314 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 37c | 188$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 3,126 | 61.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L | -30.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 60c | 170$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 31c | 158.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 763 | 22.9%175 W · 588 L | -34.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 38c | 155$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 134.92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 39c | 133.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 1,156 | 31.1%359 W · 797 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93da…2a34backed No | 54c | 128.46$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 40c | 113$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 62c | 109.75$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 68c | 109.35$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.46 | 450 | 59.1%266 W · 184 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 52c | 104.05$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 300 | 41%123 W · 177 L | +26.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 59c | 101$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 494 | 49.2%243 W · 251 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 22c | 100.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 39c | 94.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 39c | 93.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed No | 20c | 91.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 111 | 15.3%17 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 31c | 88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked No | 60c | 84.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 1,615 | 23.9%386 W · 1,229 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 72c | 84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 940 | 44.8%421 W · 519 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 36c | 71.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf514…07cdbacked Yes | 64c | 69.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed No | 35c | 68.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 39c | 66.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 39c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6325…84d0backed No | 41c | 64.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 34c | 64.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 41c | 64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 46c | 61.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 51c | 59.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 18c | 59.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 255 | 64.7%165 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 76c | 56.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 345 | 49.9%172 W · 173 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 34c | 54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 493 | 63.5%313 W · 180 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 46c | 53.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 254 | 40.9%104 W · 150 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 28c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 54c | 50.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc4…a136backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 41c | 47.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 37c | 47.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 31c | 45.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe27a…c965backed No | 45c | 44.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 45c | 43.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 65c | 43.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 197 | 55.8%110 W · 87 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd57f…e0f8backed Yes | 66c | 42.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e39…aad6backed Yes | 73c | 41.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 54c | 37.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 202 | 55.4%112 W · 90 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…31eabacked Yes | 68c | 36.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 40c | 36.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 38c | 35.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 34.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 73c | 34.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -14.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 62c | 32.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 199 | 46.2%92 W · 107 L | -14.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 39c | 30.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 36c | 30.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4e…dba5backed No | 50c | 30.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 69c | 28.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 39c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2820…dccdbacked Yes | 72c | 24.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 48c | 24.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 63c | 23.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2dc…19a3backed Yes | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 69c | 22.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 69c | 21.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 1,330 | 34.1%453 W · 877 L | +45.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c63…8448backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 189 | 52.4%99 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 265 | 57.7%153 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…adafbacked Yes | 62c | 19.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 61c | 19.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 70c | 19.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.