Middle East · resolved market
Israel strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9119b9a91b48b2b342891311c3faed7f70a98f50ab263f67bdd2c57b5bb6b529
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 1c | 17,647$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.43 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 2c | 6,759$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1287…e491backed Yes | 4c | 5,567$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 3c | 4,023$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.53 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +10.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +27%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfc26…cc42backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…9ea8backed Yes | 1c | 3,739$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 86 | 7%6 W · 80 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d6…50c7backed Yes | 5c | 2,677$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.33 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,634$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0465…3065backed Yes | 5c | 1,827$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…759ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,683$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69d6…9fa8backed Yes | 2c | 1,166$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…20b1backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 115 | 1.7%2 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…8e24backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 990.91$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.79 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…0bbebacked Yes | 3c | 864.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 5c | 792.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…e603backed Yes | 4c | 707.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4d…c9a1backed Yes | 3c | 638.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…8397backed Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…974dbacked Yes | 2c | 592.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 51 | 5.9%3 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes | 4c | 509.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…8843backed Yes | 12c | 487.83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 13cpaid | +204.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…ea96backed Yes | 6c | 411.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes | 3c | 407.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 6c | 252.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa28d…89babacked Yes | 6c | 242.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 224.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ee…eed1backed Yes | 10c | 220$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…4d49backed Yes | 10c | 155.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3829…3633backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +226.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.