South American Leagues · resolved market
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x918a9b1ce8e32f88972d72c122fc178984be922ae72e3399c77fec7eb07e2eb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfe3…c693backed Over | 39c | 6,250$2,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,442.66 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 2,704$1,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.24 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 39c | 2,306$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.21 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 60c | 1,225$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.92 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 60c | 996.65$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.66 | 422 | 50.2%212 W · 210 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed Under | 61c | 819.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.67 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 63c | 807.67$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.84 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 58c | 499.93$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.97 | 110 | 59.1%65 W · 45 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 59c | 350.81$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.77 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 37c | 299.77$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.86 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 317 | 45.1%143 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…1959backed Under | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 58c | 164.85$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac7…c99abacked Over | 42c | 162.34$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.53 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 60c | 148.09$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Over | 42c | 107.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce1…a25dbacked Under | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 59c | 91.37$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 63c | 86.3$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Over | 39c | 84.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa422…d210backed Under | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…febdbacked Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Under | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 36c | 48.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…2ebbbacked Under | 64c | 47.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc115…9138backed Over | 42c | 46.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 100 | 31%31 W · 69 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…2f6abacked Over | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c49…50e2backed Over | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 39c | 32.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3e…11c0backed Under | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 59c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under | 59c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…3914backed Over | 42c | 30.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Over | 40c | 25.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 286 | 65%186 W · 100 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Under | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 60c | 21.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed Under | 61c | 21.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -6.9wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x52e7…dfaabacked Under | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 108 | 62%67 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764d…96aebacked Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 64c | 18.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 64c | 17.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 2.5this page
- Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 1.5Over won
- Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 3.5Under won
- Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Club Bolívar (-1.5)Deportivo La Guaira FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.