Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Lynx (BO3) - European Pro League Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91c02291ca478e77030e6f75b4eaf1f237fded866f7f4e2dedae1e1a4858176b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Lynxof VP.Prodigy, Team Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78e0…375bbacked VP.Prodigy | 46c | 1,321$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e5…9401backed Team Lynx | 76c | 570.6$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.54 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc847…262fbacked Team Lynx | 12c | 400$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e88…5ddabacked VP.Prodigy | 24c | 318.31$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.4 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +11.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed VP.Prodigy | 25c | 225$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed VP.Prodigy | 27c | 211.83$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24de…53e7backed Team Lynx | 10c | 169.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.95 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 8cpaid | +405.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Team Lynx | 75c | 159.87$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed VP.Prodigy | 32c | 139.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 256 | 39.5%101 W · 155 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc579…57bfbacked VP.Prodigy | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked VP.Prodigy | 28c | 101.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…2c24backed Team Lynx | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 11cpaid | +242.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Team Lynx | 65c | 98.17$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed VP.Prodigy | 36c | 91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Team Lynx | 64c | 72.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a5…2caebacked Team Lynx | 68c | 68.93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed VP.Prodigy | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…2dc7backed Team Lynx | 74c | 38.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…ba6fbacked Team Lynx | 70c | 35.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -6.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -61%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Team Lynx | 74c | 25.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ff…2506backed Team Lynx | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc85d…6832backed Team Lynx | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c68…47adbacked Team Lynx | 67c | 19.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Lynx (BO3) - European Pro League Group Athis page
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Lynx - Game 1 WinnerTeam Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.