Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Cloud Rising vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91e24f90e3d9c6f340d4349f3b3d906dcfe54e68926e927e01be3606dd028695
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cloud Dawningof Cloud Rising, Cloud Dawning
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,011 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Cloud Rising | 0c | 7,392$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…ebfbbacked Cloud Dawning | 64c | 1,597$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…1c1dbacked Cloud Rising | 36c | 1,436$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…abbebacked Cloud Rising | 25c | 1,121$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +47%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c84…4effbacked Cloud Rising | 36c | 902$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x598e…d2f0backed Cloud Dawning | 64c | 740.99$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Cloud Rising | 53c | 657$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.21 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…6b7fbacked Cloud Rising | 53c | 601.81$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb206…090dbacked Cloud Dawning | 75c | 589$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x539f…d114backed Cloud Rising | 56c | 557$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8be4…87b1backed Cloud Dawning | 75c | 532$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Cloud Dawning | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dec…058cbacked Cloud Dawning | 47c | 412.73$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebd6…1d0ebacked Cloud Dawning | 44c | 373$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6737…7fbabacked Cloud Rising | 26c | 369$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Cloud Dawning | 59c | 360.73$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.39 | 189 | 54%102 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…5491backed Cloud Rising | 53c | 354.18$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cloud Dawning | 46c | 351.3$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.7 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Cloud Dawning | 57c | 311.76$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.82 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796c…49dbbacked Cloud Dawning | 68c | 303.78$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…1655backed Cloud Rising | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Cloud Dawning | 47c | 297.49$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.89 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b11…102abacked Cloud Dawning | 44c | 276$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9b…3de2backed Cloud Dawning | 43c | 268.02$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.8 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc33…aa3ebacked Cloud Dawning | 46c | 250$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…bbcebacked Cloud Rising | 55c | 228.47$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Cloud Dawning | 48c | 210.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.42 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Cloud Dawning | 45c | 200.2$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.23 | 208 | 38.9%81 W · 127 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Cloud Rising | 56c | 198.37$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.42 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…a6bcbacked Cloud Dawning | 74c | 193$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed Cloud Dawning | 54c | 189.64$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.96 | 150 | 33.3%50 W · 100 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…9278backed Cloud Dawning | 47c | 189.08$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6133…be6bbacked Cloud Dawning | 74c | 175$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…7a7bbacked Cloud Rising | 51c | 170.75$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.88 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x494c…8923backed Cloud Rising | 55c | 159.45$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Cloud Rising | 52c | 159.2$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.02 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Cloud Rising | 35c | 146.93$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5031…1ca3backed Cloud Dawning | 60c | 146.03$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.36 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…fc98backed Cloud Rising | 54c | 134.55$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.66 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Cloud Rising | 33c | 121.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c49…08ddbacked Cloud Dawning | 57c | 93.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d79…79a6backed Cloud Rising | 56c | 92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Cloud Rising | 34c | 86.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Cloud Dawning | 48c | 82.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe04…1481backed Cloud Rising | 50c | 78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5afa…df73backed Cloud Dawning | 78c | 76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Cloud Rising | 24c | 75.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641a…a144backed Cloud Rising | 68c | 73.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3e…9120backed Cloud Rising | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…f6dfbacked Cloud Rising | 54c | 72.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Cloud Rising | 54c | 63.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9810…b0debacked Cloud Rising | 51c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbda…8bd5backed Cloud Rising | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 132 | 59.8%79 W · 53 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed38…a7aabacked Cloud Dawning | 66c | 45.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5de…88dabacked Cloud Dawning | 63c | 40.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Cloud Dawning | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b8…50d8backed Cloud Dawning | 64c | 39.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Cloud Rising | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 131 | 48.1%63 W · 68 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Cloud Dawning | 68c | 35.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Cloud Dawning | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf58…711fbacked Cloud Rising | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…db89backed Cloud Rising | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 127 | 59.8%76 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8213…48a3backed Cloud Dawning | 71c | 19.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x618f…3780backed Cloud Dawning | 69c | 15.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Cloud Rising vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stagethis page
- Dota 2: Cloud Rising vs Cloud Dawning - Game 1 WinnerCloud Dawning won
- Dota 2: Cloud Rising vs Cloud Dawning - Game 2 WinnerCloud Dawning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.