Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs NAVI Junior - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x922d9a2c8e133b2dc94c49fb0264ac1f27a83150ec6d3af891b5c9731a2a861c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NAVI Juniorof Spirit Academy, NAVI Junior
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,592 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a46…ab25backed Spirit Academy | 18c | 1,116$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.72 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Spirit Academy | 33c | 1,061$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…be98backed NAVI Junior | 28c | 510$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.2 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd77f…05a4backed Spirit Academy | 71c | 510$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.1 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.35per pick | 54cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcee0…f8f9backed Spirit Academy | 71c | 500$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd8…2213backed NAVI Junior | 28c | 500$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e0…ac15backed NAVI Junior | 28c | 460$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.2 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 43cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…ef63backed Spirit Academy | 71c | 460$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…f53cbacked Spirit Academy | 71c | 450$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e4…2a20backed NAVI Junior | 28c | 450$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked NAVI Junior | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed NAVI Junior | 63c | 234.07$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.14 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked Spirit Academy | 15c | 230$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked NAVI Junior | 63c | 165.88$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.14 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed NAVI Junior | 67c | 81.86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Spirit Academy | 52c | 78.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32df…cce8backed Spirit Academy | 37c | 53.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked NAVI Junior | 77c | 53.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Spirit Academy | 40c | 51.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked NAVI Junior | 70c | 31.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8213…48a3backed NAVI Junior | 71c | 21.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed NAVI Junior | 58c | 20.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb51f…b7dbbacked Spirit Academy | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs NAVI Junior - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - CCT Group ANAVI Junior won
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs NAVI Junior - Game 2 WinnerNAVI Junior won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.