Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - CCT Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed71a3baa28e0c9b25e1d5ad811057ad138b04a813fd99c064464b877f90de53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NAVI Juniorof Spirit Academy, NAVI Junior
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,454 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a46…ab25backed Spirit Academy | 47c | 1,338$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.9 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Spirit Academy | 50c | 1,024$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.69 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Spirit Academy | 68c | 573$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.17 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked NAVI Junior | 22c | 499.56$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.25 | 692 | 35.3%244 W · 448 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed NAVI Junior | 25c | 485.92$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.3 | 335 | 41.2%138 W · 197 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed NAVI Junior | 58c | 352.45$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.4 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed NAVI Junior | 54c | 345.98$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.15 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed NAVI Junior | 51c | 291.35$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.35 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x548f…a2b4backed Spirit Academy | 60c | 228.91$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed NAVI Junior | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 535 | 33.8%181 W · 354 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Spirit Academy | 50c | 173.02$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.03 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda86…6ff9backed Spirit Academy | 48c | 167.71$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +132.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked NAVI Junior | 54c | 136.8$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…9a6ebacked Spirit Academy | 78c | 120$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked NAVI Junior | 22c | 119.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.58 | 253 | 48.6%123 W · 130 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb67…fd46backed Spirit Academy | 12c | 112$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed NAVI Junior | 49c | 96.74$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…63ecbacked Spirit Academy | 32c | 88.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc093…de0ebacked Spirit Academy | 78c | 85.55$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.93 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Spirit Academy | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed Spirit Academy | 35c | 79.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 150 | 33.3%50 W · 100 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Spirit Academy | 28c | 70.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf823…74c4backed NAVI Junior | 65c | 66.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed NAVI Junior | 21c | 62.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked NAVI Junior | 63c | 60.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 2,367 | 47.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…c0efbacked NAVI Junior | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed NAVI Junior | 61c | 42.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed NAVI Junior | 76c | 40.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…e9d3backed Spirit Academy | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed NAVI Junior | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked NAVI Junior | 58c | 31.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51f…b7dbbacked Spirit Academy | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32df…cce8backed NAVI Junior | 74c | 26.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Spirit Academy | 78c | 25.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…ff87backed NAVI Junior | 80c | 22.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Spirit Academy | 49c | 21.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bb…ff5cbacked NAVI Junior | 51c | 21.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - CCT Group Athis page
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs NAVI Junior - Game 1 WinnerNAVI Junior won
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs NAVI Junior - Game 2 WinnerNAVI Junior won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.