Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs NAVI Junior - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae0df06cfb6af7f9354d2811db4fe14b05df25637bde1da342234fd453f7a91e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NAVI Juniorof Spirit Academy, NAVI Junior
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,844 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a46…ab25backed NAVI Junior | 51c | 737.95$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.76 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8d75backed NAVI Junior | 37c | 699.98$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.99 | 242 | 51.7%125 W · 117 L | +21.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Spirit Academy | 42c | 640.14$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.06 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Spirit Academy | 50c | 569.46$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.73 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef66…f839backed Spirit Academy | 62c | 498.47$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed NAVI Junior | 54c | 472.32$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.78 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Spirit Academy | 61c | 423.17$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.95 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x688e…148dbacked NAVI Junior | 63c | 319.6$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed NAVI Junior | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd682…8d3dbacked NAVI Junior | 72c | 277$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe503…735ebacked NAVI Junior | 45c | 258.23$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…a06dbacked Spirit Academy | 39c | 234.53$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.53 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Spirit Academy | 54c | 191.32$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked NAVI Junior | 39c | 135.92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.35 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3e…9120backed NAVI Junior | 70c | 134.29$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked NAVI Junior | 53c | 116.21$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a4…4249backed Spirit Academy | 66c | 97.15$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.12 | 196 | 64.8%127 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed NAVI Junior | 42c | 90.28$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.16 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32df…cce8backed NAVI Junior | 53c | 74.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed NAVI Junior | 79c | 73$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x893d…d65bbacked NAVI Junior | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeefb…d11fbacked NAVI Junior | 58c | 71.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Spirit Academy | 51c | 65.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x892f…74f3backed NAVI Junior | 44c | 54.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Spirit Academy | 21c | 49.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed NAVI Junior | 60c | 48.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked NAVI Junior | 69c | 43.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Spirit Academy | 37c | 31.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c49…08ddbacked NAVI Junior | 42c | 25.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3090…b769backed NAVI Junior | 57c | 23.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Spirit Academy | 55c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 137 | 33.6%46 W · 91 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8213…48a3backed NAVI Junior | 57c | 22.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…63ecbacked NAVI Junior | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d66…aa07backed Spirit Academy | 68c | 17.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked NAVI Junior | 68c | 14.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs NAVI Junior - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - CCT Group ANAVI Junior won
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs NAVI Junior - Game 1 WinnerNAVI Junior won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.