Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92441b73512f9a9e1fb0494540a9287d78c1f018aa6dbc6999ca5288aad5bbde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,640 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed No | 2c | 1,414$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 8c | 456.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f25…322ebacked No | 3c | 401.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 24c | 199.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.69 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 68c | 155.48$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 46c | 140.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 128.33$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.56 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 39c | 119.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.25 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 39c | 100.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 13c | 79.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.63 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…9d98backed Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 26c | 64.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…59a6backed Yes | 40c | 50.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c26…9b6fbacked No | 22c | 49.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25a2…3b2fbacked Yes | 48c | 41.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60e4…f926backed No | 34c | 39.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb957…b8acbacked Yes | 59c | 33.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 47c | 32.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 74c | 24.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 65c | 23.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 66c | 22.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 76c | 19.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966f…175bbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C or higher on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.