Mls · resolved market
Will D.C. United SC vs. FC Dallas end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9249318468eb564f2e41c6cdf14d17d330b857e01e728c365c95ac8efb93666a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 79c | 5,798$4,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206.56 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 2,943$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.69 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 19c | 1,260$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.36 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 28c | 892.86$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 28c | 437.25$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.43 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 72c | 428.43$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.96 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 72c | 411.2$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.14 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 72c | 374.36$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.82 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Yes | 27c | 296.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.08 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Yes | 27c | 296.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.08 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 283.14$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.15 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 11c | 234$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 19c | 134.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 25c | 122.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 28c | 118.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Yes | 11c | 109.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 17c | 88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Yes | 14c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 28c | 41.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…8799backed No | 71c | 28.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 70c | 26.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will D.C. United SC vs. FC Dallas end in a draw?this page
- Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-04-04?No won
- Will FC Dallas win on 2026-04-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.