Mls · resolved market
Will FC Dallas win on 2026-04-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x567d979285a854ee7fb2b9ee2c2f74091853ca1f6dd881c2e638c7f0c1ae9ebd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 55c | 7,830$4,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,493.35 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 47c | 4,316$2,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,020.73 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 69c | 1,651$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.1 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 30c | 1,540$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.29 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 9c | 1,025$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.93 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 44c | 763.73$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.33 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed No | 70c | 658.03$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.73 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed No | 46c | 521.24$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.38 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de7…9ca7backed Yes | 34c | 471.49$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked No | 13c | 404.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 69c | 381.54$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.19 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 69c | 375.39$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.88 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 69c | 361.82$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.15 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked No | 69c | 319.9$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.79 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed No | 69c | 313.74$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.48 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 30c | 287$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.9 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 70c | 247.59$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.31 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked No | 71c | 243.85$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.13 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -7.7wins | -0.26per pick | 57cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 22c | 233.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 30c | 223.41$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.39 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 70c | 217.36$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.15 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…c99dbacked No | 14c | 215.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked No | 14c | 215.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked No | 14c | 215.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked No | 18c | 213.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed No | 12c | 209.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x231f…254bbacked No | 12c | 207.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked No | 12c | 207.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…37e6backed No | 12c | 207.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed No | 10c | 203.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 70c | 196.69$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.97 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked No | 14c | 194.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 70c | 190.5$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.35 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed No | 70c | 171.42$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce5…af2ebacked No | 12c | 166.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1968…8c66backed No | 69c | 144.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked No | 69c | 144.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked No | 70c | 143.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 71c | 140.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.51 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5e…81ffbacked Yes | 31c | 136.61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed No | 14c | 128.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 29c | 118.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 63c | 110$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.35 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 71c | 97$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.87 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 70c | 89.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.29 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 77c | 85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea3…71a1backed No | 47c | 84.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e51…c2e4backed No | 15c | 79.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…e772backed No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked No | 70c | 71.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…a0f5backed Yes | 72c | 60.88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…8573backed Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6924…1455backed Yes | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 71c | 43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed Yes | 29c | 39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 42c | 36.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 45c | 35.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 72c | 33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…8799backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…7b27backed No | 69c | 26.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb38…f78dbacked No | 70c | 25.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc32…32f8backed No | 71c | 25.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…c734backed No | 70c | 24.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed No | 71c | 24.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed No | 71c | 24.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 54c | 20.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…5bb7backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 70c | 14.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Dallas win on 2026-04-04?this page
- Will D.C. United SC vs. FC Dallas end in a draw?No won
- Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-04-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.