Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. FC St. Pauli end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x924e3fdc899174c9e02cdb37c74ab6c7cd89399d4e16a31d4dc6c45ad24156f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x59e3…8476backed Yes | 24c | 5,835$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e9…d6afbacked Yes | 24c | 4,164$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab76…8c37backed No | 76c | 3,420$2,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c35…9e9abacked No | 76c | 3,290$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe52…4ae7backed No | 76c | 3,288$2,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f90…1b35backed No | 77c | 1,064$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…9aefbacked Yes | 24c | 1,042$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 23c | 612.51$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.88 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes | 25c | 568$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19a9…fce6backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 23c | 335.97$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.27 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 270$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 74c | 270$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5949…89dabacked No | 76c | 258$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6980…2194backed Yes | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Yes | 13c | 245.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 75c | 215.2$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…f80abacked Yes | 24c | 204.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbab8…6485backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6957…3d11backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0148backed Yes | 24c | 191.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Yes | 21c | 190.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf86…3816backed Yes | 24c | 187.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc28e…084fbacked No | 75c | 185.97$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 25c | 180.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0909…91cabacked Yes | 24c | 145.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf78e…0956backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7272…7135backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 22c | 79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Yes | 17c | 63.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 68c | 62.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 22c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 24c | 45.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6231…3f29backed No | 75c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ef…720ebacked No | 77c | 41.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…ffdfbacked No | 77c | 37.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9514…4a0ebacked No | 77c | 33.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8793…9dfabacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 75cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fc…ca96backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef3…acdfbacked No | 77c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfB Stuttgart vs. FC St. Pauli end in a draw?this page
- Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-09-19?No won
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.