TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$73,011
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$79,606

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,011 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xead1…c76abacked Yes55c13,178$7,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,955.8333945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7865…4af9backed No45c6,676$3,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,004.424524.4%11 W · 34 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0a0…dab5backed Yes55c5,037$2,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,276.391323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-66.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb377…f621backed No47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,349.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,249.9716647%78 W · 88 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d9a…4e25backed Yes55c4,950$2,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,227.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked No46c4,730$2,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,175.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1a4…819fbacked Yes53c3,774$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,773.581163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+37.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked No48c3,183$1,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,513.91136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e4f…446cbacked No45c3,000$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,349.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No44c2,886$1,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,266.0912651.6%65 W · 61 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes56c2,633$1,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,158.739053.3%48 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes62c2,345$1,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$892.883,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed No47c2,141$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004264.3%27 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf778…2f09backed Yes50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0004522.2%10 W · 35 L-6.2wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-45.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked No48c1,929$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Yes71c1,794$1,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.5355058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Yes61c1,788$1,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.6819153.9%103 W · 88 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Yes55c1,554$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.5119347.2%91 W · 102 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Yes52c1,500$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7202100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick59cpaid+73.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Yes62c1,426$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.6610463.5%66 W · 38 L+9.8wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No37c1,377$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.083033.3%10 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No45c1,078$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.0223046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed No40c1,077$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.345143.1%22 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No46c1,071$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.7824258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6231…3f29backed No48c1,000$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No41c878.89$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.788420.2%17 W · 67 L-8.7wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-51.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes53c849.06$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.0638055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes67c805$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.6522669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Yes65c802$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.0714846.6%69 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Yes52c800$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38415847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xccfb…376ebacked Yes54c700$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3221100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8734…2e6cbacked Yes53c650$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed No47c650$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.53339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+84.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked No46c615.12$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8165…59d0backed No42c601.51$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-29.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a4c…6579backed No5c599.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick28cpaid-11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fb5…6530backed Yes55c594.46$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.142360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5693…71fdbacked Yes55c545.45$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.45875%6 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+65.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Yes52c455.61$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.6915742%66 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes54c441$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.083644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0523…c48dbacked Yes52c404.99$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.25666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+66.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1882…ba8bbacked Yes52c400$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1921100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed No45c399.97$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.992536%9 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Yes55c363.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.6419943.2%86 W · 113 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29c5…b378backed Yes57c350.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.88771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf16c…57d6backed Yes60c348$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.62366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf575…e0ebbacked No34c325$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102544%11 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes65c317.34$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.07580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+44.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d70…b17ebacked Yes51c315.49$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.49785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick59cpaid+52.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked No47c308.39$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.942846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…42c9backed Yes56c299.99$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x421d…320abacked No44c299.99$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13230%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes53c254.92$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.012,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ea…6df7backed No47c250$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked No46c250$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1151723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No37c226.35$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.723745.6%108 W · 129 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0709…f2edbacked Yes54c225.65$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.65333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8f2…d296backed Yes55c218.18$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ed4…409fbacked No46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5edf…2f34backed Yes54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…06c9backed Yes56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881580%12 W · 3 L+5.1wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+89.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xb68b…6327backed Yes55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+57.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f84…f1c4backed No45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7320…0148backed Yes55c190.91$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.91250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed Yes55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.82683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick54cpaid+67.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x89d1…6448backed Yes55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.82966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+34.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6c5…f6d4backed Yes55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.821735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-33%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x08fd…8ff9backed Yes56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdee7…f032backed Yes56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.57666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2408…9de9backed No46c178.33$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.03540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-41.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x008e…5747backed Yes57c169.12$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.723100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4041…6f52backed Yes55c154.4$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.424650%23 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8d…8189backed No46c151.04$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4840%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeefa…d1a2backed Yes53c137.93$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95bb…6566backed No45c134.87$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.69250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefe7…0cdfbacked Yes53c130.16$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.763351.5%17 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed No47c126$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1625659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6899…6853backed No45c122.6$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.17450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No43c122$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8928241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf36…94e8backed No46c120$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c53…cba8backed Yes57c104.57$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.571346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa44e…40b6backed Yes52c104.14$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5050…9a6fbacked Yes53c102.45$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3c2…4074backed No46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3602…b407backed Yes54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9193…c86cbacked Yes55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick55cpaid+27.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c27…8201backed Yes55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.05771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x41e3…1962backed Yes55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbda7…fc55backed Yes55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7559…357fbacked No46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdf2…3aa4backed No46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf0a…94c9backed Yes55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3344…3c53backed No46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e76…73d1backed Yes55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d28…932abacked Yes53c90.59$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.581968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.8wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+35.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbb33…ef60backed Yes57c90.54$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.93250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf144…f2bbbacked Yes56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.29650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Yes68c85$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.833265.6%21 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.