Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-09-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48cf2f5dac48b5aba7094f48e88b06349eb32ff693b80e720c4227b9a452cacb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 77c | 5,000$3,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.98 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 3,583$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.69 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562f…e46fbacked No | 77c | 2,445$1,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 24c | 2,200$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.52 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Yes | 26c | 2,025$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.91 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 75c | 1,535$1,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.53 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 74c | 1,385$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.4 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 23c | 1,216$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.99 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 23c | 1,181$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.58 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 78c | 1,110$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.5 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked Yes | 1c | 1,075$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Yes | 23c | 1,020$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 17c | 958.41$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.7 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes | 24c | 833.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9805…bbaabacked Yes | 22c | 629.7$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f47…0043backed Yes | 22c | 574.68$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb377…f621backed No | 75c | 512.5$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 15c | 504.28$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.51 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6231…3f29backed No | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fce…28f8backed Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Yes | 22c | 453.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 75c | 407.59$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.16 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 75c | 344$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 96 | 21.9%21 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…ddd7backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c8…6737backed No | 79c | 299.2$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 23c | 291.43$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.21 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19a9…fce6backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…17c0backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…6926backed Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c279backed No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…bf01backed No | 79c | 126.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1466…1d5abacked Yes | 22c | 122.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3d…2e64backed Yes | 25c | 112.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe782…e7d9backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…fc55backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c0…a6e5backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cc…18cebacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 21c | 72.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 18c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Yes | 23c | 69.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 78c | 63.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x188e…4812backed Yes | 23c | 59.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…509abacked Yes | 20c | 54.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…8a40backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…95a3backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…0b66backed No | 79c | 49.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e49…c523backed No | 79c | 45.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f587backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 78c | 42.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 76c | 41.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c3…aa7ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…c126backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe579…f907backed No | 80c | 36.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20f7…635ebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7594…0d7fbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-09-19?this page
- Will VfB Stuttgart vs. FC St. Pauli end in a draw?No won
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.