Tennis · resolved market
ITF Milano: Nicola Rispoli vs Gian Marco Ortenzi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9287dccc7188f03cda45729172fcb0baf4148188cb41ca1814f12598e60bd7f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gian Marco Ortenziof Nicola Rispoli, Gian Marco Ortenzi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Nicola Rispoli | 35c | 3,446$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.65 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Gian Marco Ortenzi | 64c | 2,602$1,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.83 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Gian Marco Ortenzi | 64c | 474.98$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.99 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Nicola Rispoli | 42c | 403.08$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.1 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Gian Marco Ortenzi | 61c | 322.46$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.05 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Gian Marco Ortenzi | 63c | 180.86$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.94 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Gian Marco Ortenzi | 63c | 165.52$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.69 | 637 | 46%293 W · 344 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Nicola Rispoli | 13c | 148.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Gian Marco Ortenzi | 69c | 124$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 366 | 57.7%211 W · 155 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Nicola Rispoli | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Gian Marco Ortenzi | 65c | 88$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Gian Marco Ortenzi | 74c | 82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Nicola Rispoli | 19c | 52.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf5…20f8backed Gian Marco Ortenzi | 59c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Gian Marco Ortenzi | 78c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Nicola Rispoli | 36c | 31.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Nicola Rispoli | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Nicola Rispoli | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Nicola Rispoli | 41c | 30.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Nicola Rispoli | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 796 | 46%366 W · 430 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf474…2775backed Nicola Rispoli | 47c | 23.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -15.6wins | -0.46per pick | 55cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 21-0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Gian Marco Ortenzi | 61c | 23.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 1,102 | 56.5%623 W · 479 L | +52.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Gian Marco Ortenzi | 62c | 16.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.