Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92aad47cece9c9f3b2fe3d7ff5bbaa9cf83032d2df45a669461e57186716e0fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 434.6$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 35c | 424.05$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.56 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 238.48$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.88 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 14c | 234.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 8c | 232.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 65c | 154.09$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.9 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 145.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 41c | 140.58$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.32 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 39c | 132.66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.55 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 38c | 130.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.22 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 29c | 123.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.84 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 47c | 106.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.45 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 103.77$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.77 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 42c | 102.29$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 64c | 100.49$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.58 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 34c | 93.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.48 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 44c | 90.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 25c | 85.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 38c | 75.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…3f0dbacked No | 60c | 73.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 71.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…d7a7backed No | 62c | 56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 66c | 51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 39c | 49.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…8495backed Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 44.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed No | 61c | 42.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 76c | 40.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 37c | 40.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 70c | 36.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 69c | 36.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 67c | 33.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 32.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08fc…3c2dbacked Yes | 34c | 29.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 62c | 28.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…ad9dbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 59c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…636dbacked No | 75c | 20.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a46…196cbacked No | 75c | 20.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…a9c8backed No | 64c | 19.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 73c | 16.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…ff74backed No | 66c | 15.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 73°F or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.