Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92c12765f98792c2fc35eecf9f08af2c4ccdae854440d83475ca125af6aacf40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 42c | 592.73$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.28 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 49c | 216.48$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.44 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 50c | 160.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.09 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 155.25$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 54c | 153.72$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.42 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 42c | 145.82$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 59c | 136.48$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 121.32$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 47c | 106.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.92 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 50c | 99.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.07 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 45c | 75.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 37c | 72.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 36c | 70.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 58c | 69.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 59c | 67.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 38c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 49c | 64.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 45c | 61.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 70c | 61.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 44c | 56.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 45c | 49.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 56c | 48.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 46c | 48.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 59c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 52c | 44.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 42c | 44.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 39.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 58c | 36.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe128…ccb4backed Yes | 54c | 33.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a8…552fbacked Yes | 56c | 32.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 31.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 41c | 28.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 52c | 26.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…aa2dbacked Yes | 57c | 26.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 70c | 26.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 54c | 25.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdb…b241backed Yes | 45c | 23.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 46c | 23.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 55c | 21.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 62c | 20.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…dfe9backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…29fdbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 58c | 19.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 18.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c6…3eb7backed Yes | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 67c | 15.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.